Thursday, April 12, 2012

It is all about the Ram

What should an education system deliver? As parents, what do we want our kids to learn? These are broad, profound questions, and I am sure the answers will cover the whole range . Good overall behavior, strong value system, a set of good friends, the ability to distinguish between right and wrong, grand all-round development (this is the holy grail these days) will all feature in the wish-list. Given my preference for discussing things within a specific framework, I am going to think about what an education system gives a child from a purely academic point of view. Want to think about what should kids learn.

I am going to classify learning into three sub-headings - RAM, Hard-drive and Apps. I am sure most guys are familiar with these terms, but a little bit of elaboration never hurts.

  1. RAM would be a proxy for raw processing-power - a proxy for how well a brain can sort data, process them and arrive at conclusions.
  2. Hard-drive is proxy for storage space/memory. How well and how much information can the brain store? How well this information can be accessed and cross-tabulated will depend on the RAM again, but lets come to that later
  3. Apps are simple layers that are added on top that rest on some part of RAM and hard-drive and simplify the data processing and execution. Just to give an example, learning how to use Tally or how to use log tables is an app.
Now, it is clear that we need all three - but the relative importance of the three and the ages when we should focus on each is what should determine the education system. In my mind, easily the most important component of the three is the RAM. Especially for kids below the age of 17, RAM is going to be the key. Every school should obsess over just one question - How is my course going to improve the processing power of these kids?

The way the world is going, the value of hard-drive is dropping by the day. Anything that needs to be stored away is going to be made accessible. Our parents had to remember telephone codes, we had to remember log 2, these kids wont have to "remember" much. Instead of saying the kids of the current era dont have patience, bandwidth, we should be thinking - Now, that the hard-drive is less important, I need to crank up the RAM even more.

Now, there is a critical difference between the computer analogy that we have chosen and the way the human brain works. Our computer analogy somewhat makes these three bits as separate silos, whereas in the human mind, these three are very inter-linked. In a computer framework, we will be sacrificing one of the three for gaining the other two. On the contrary, for the human brain, best way to improve RAM might be through working on a memory-building app. Some apps can be very very RAM-enhancing.

Schools need to go for the best approaches that target the RAM. Schools should obsess over RAM. 10-year olds should be given very challenging questions that build on their analytical capability. This is where the original frameworks are very helpful - the 3R's - Reading, wRiting and aRithmetic. One focuses on comprehension, one on articulation and one on analytical frameworks. If these are drilled in, then loading apps will be a piece of cake.

There are plenty of apps that can be used to enhance the RAM power, especially for critical skill sets. Schools should use these, but they should keep in mind that these apps are there for a purpose - to improve RAM. And not get carried away about the app itself. So, if you are teaching kids excel sheets, convey how it can sort, rank, manipulate numbers easily. Give kids 10 numbers and ask them to write something in excel that will find the average of the 4 largest numbers. But, do not get an excel tutor and teach them vlookup. If they can do the former, they can figure out the latter. In almost all jobs, we want guys who can figure out, there are very few jobs where we need guys who know.

App-loading is a process that can be done from the age of 18 upwards. There are a number of professions that will require specific apps. But the first 18 years should be spent obsessing over processor speed.

I have moaned about how Chennai's education system has become poor and discussed the some of the reasons behind it. My specific peeve is that the system does a good job on the hard-drive and a decent job on apps. But processor sucks. Most of the students I interact with have a range of apps, heavy hard-drive but a 128MB RAM. The more you load this with apps, the weaker the system gets. Learning-fatigue sets in within 20 minutes and system craves for more apps to fill the gap. In math, the mind wants short-cuts, in English the mind wants plug-and-play rules.

The best minds I interact with are the ones that think of a counter-example the moment you state a rule, and the ones that want to figure out why a short-cut works and when it would not work. The more unsure minds are always ready to load up on apps that the RAM cannot really figure out. It is like playing Age of Empires on a PC 486. I would rather play Minesweeper on a dual core.

Will give some more practical examples on how we can work on the RAM in future posts. In my mind, the most important part of the jigsaw lies in not underestimating the processor that a 10-year old has (they are brilliant by the way). And taking the liberty to push that brain as hard as possible. I am sure kids will love it if it is done right.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

SOPA, PIPA, Kapil Sibal and Ad Hominem

In recent times, we have seen a huge furore against policing on the internet, both in India and globally. In the US, SOPA and PIPA have been positioned as instruments of state control (even Wikipedia went on a 24-hour black out against this); while in India everyone and their dog has cried foul against Mr Sibal.

Now, neither Mr. Sibal not the US Congress are saints. But we need to see what they are saying instead of attacking a framework just because it has been presented by them.

The US wants to expand the current copyright framework and clamp down on online piracy aggressively. I cannot see how this is against freedom of expression.

The whole issue boils down to the issue of "user-generated content". Over the past 18 months, we have seen many forums that host content contributed by the user - Blogs with comments, facebook, youtube, etc. This has been a magnificent addition because this has democratized creativity, so to say. One does not need to have a grand distribution system to launch a video/album. You put something together, get it up on youtube and it will take off if it is good. On good websites, the comments section has increased the value of the article to the reader immensely. They have taken this urge in people to express and converted this into a wonderful positive externality. So, user-generated content has generally been a huge positive.

However, the provision of this platform has lent itself to two forms of abuse - copyright violation and hate commentary. Anyone who feels compelled to do so can upload highlights of a football match or streaming video of a concert. Thanks to technology the costs of doing this is very low. And most people do this in order to increase traffic to their blog/channel. This is not user-generated content - this is called IP theft.

Facebook, youtube and co have found a wonderful way to help ordinary people find a platform for expression. What they have also found is an equally wonderful way to monetize this. Even if they were not monetizing this, they should be held responsible for content that gets aired. I cannot imagine a legal framework where some movies cannot be aired but can be showcased on youtube,

The cloak of anonymity gives many cowards the "courage" to air their thoughts. This is why the internet is more hateful, shameless and edgier than real life. Facebook, youtube should provide all details to help nail the offenders. They cannot simply shrug their shoulders and hide behind freedom of expression.

Freedom of expression has established limits in almost every country. In India, one cannot incite religious hatred in the name of FOE. Even in the far more liberal Euro-land, holocaust denial is a crime. In almost all countries, freedom of expression does not include the right to air content created by someone else. That is Intellectual Property Right violation. The internet need not adhere to stricter standards than the real world. But, it most definitely should adhere to the basic tenets agreed upon in each country.

If it is considered illegal to say random stuff about religion in India, it must be considered illegal to post it on facebook on Indian accounts. And if facebook cannot take responsibility for this, I do not know who else can. Facebook, youtube, etc should be asked to monitor content aggressively. And a government agency should be given the powers and liberty to impose hefty fines if some violation sits on the website for more than, say, 6 hours. I would go to the extent of saying FB and youtube should be able to share their overall dope for the government agency to continuously screen the content with some sophisticated software. If any user can come up with a screenshot of offensive content, they should be able to send it to some government agency. If FB/youtube do not agree to this, said websites should be asked to take a hike.

Just because the odds of Kapil Sibal saying something sensible are very low, we should not take it that everything he spouts is incorrect. In fact, his reasons for wanting to monitor the web could be spurious, but the point still remains. Hiding under the garb of "user-generated content" is a lot of copyright violation and hate-speech. The sooner we face up to this reality and handle this the better.


Sunday, January 22, 2012

India's inverted risk pyramid and FDI in retail

90% + graduates from India's IIMs take up jobs with the corporate world. 95% of entrepreneurs (most working in the so-called unorganized sector) are guys who would definitely not be among the top 10% of India's wealth (who will collectively hold 90% + of India's wealth)

Vijay Mallya runs a so-called risky business where his personal fortune is perfectly hedged. Apparently for every Re 1 that Kingfisher loses, assorted creditors and banks lose Rs. 14. Your vegetable vendor borrows Rs. 1000 at the beginning of the week, buys vegetables & fruits, makes Rs. 1600 -ish through the week, repays Rs. 1100 and then keeps Rs. 500 for himself (If everything works out).

In a rational world, we would see well-off people taking more risk and the less well-off settling for steady-income jobs. In India, the setting is the exact opposite. The well-off fall in two categories - 1) ones that are happy with a steady role and see enormous wealth-accumulation opportunity in that and 2) ones those find themselves in a position to take healthy risk with other people's money.

The poorer ones, on the other hand, are forced to take risk on an everyday basis. They take every kind of risk - business risk, financial risk, life risk (have you seen how our buses/trains overflow), health risk, etc. etc. The organized sector shuns these because they lack polish and good communication skills, they do not have inherited wealth and make a choice to run their own vegetable shop rather than being someone's office boy. Many take the route to Dubai or East Asia. (very risky options).

Now, what has this got to do with FDI in retail? Everything. Forget the big shops, forget the consumer benefits, forget how the big western guys can scr*w the happiness of dear Reliance retail. Expansion of organized retail can de-risk India's working class. And it is worth pursuing for that reason alone. A week's effort from a vegetable vendor can be erased if one small scooter runs into his tricycle by mistake. If you have seen the utter look of horror on the face of a vendor when they see looming clouds on the horizon, you can get a sense of what I am getting at here. What is 2 hours of pain for most of the salaried-class is a debt-crisis for the vegetable vendor. Especially, when you keep in mind how tough it is to maintain vegetables and fruits fresh during rains.

A lot of chatter has been seen on how Mom and pop stores can get squeezed out by giant discount stores. This is irrelevant. Lets face it, our mom and pop stores are not great entrepreneur stories anyway. Lot of these stores are being run because the people who are running them could not get "other" jobs. If these people could get employed at a big store, stay in AC store rooms for 10 hours, get paid a salary, get 15 days off a year and get trained on consumer-handling, it is going to be great for them. They no longer need to worry about their mini-store getting flooded when rain crosses 12 cms level in Chennai. For the love of god, someone should be selling the idea of this de-risking. Instead of saying this is Satan by another name.

Quite inevitably, India being India, either the Ambanis or Ruias or Mallyas will get into some JV with some global player and make tons of money for just existing. But for all this, if retail chains come through and convert India's hapless unorganized sector into salaried class, it is worth pursuing.

India's poor are exposed to way too many risks than they care about. If trickle down can make their life more steady, even if not richer, that alone is worth pursuing. India's poverty cannot be eradicated in 10 years. If we can create a setting where the next generation has hope, that is something to shoot for. Reduce risk, give people good salaries and bend over backwards to convince them that this is the better option for them. Instead of doing all this, we are protesting against organized retail.

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Chennai's Education system - Why has it gone down the drain?

Had ranted about how the education system in Chennai had become very poor over the past decade and a half. Had made a promise to myself to outline why this has indeed become the case. So, here goes.

The usual suspects are all there - Lesser pressure from parents, more distractions, mobile phone, gadget-fetish, etc etc. But two things stand out.

First is the fact that the City's engineering colleges have completely mastered the art of ensuring 90% of their students get placed in the IT Companies. And the lines have blurred between "good" job and "bad" job. Most jobs pay in the same range. If we can treat the odd offer from Amazon or Google as an outlier, everyone is pretty much in the same boat. Great breakthrough for engineering colleges, good for the real estate market; but extremely bad for the incentive system for parents and students. There appears to be no credible answer to the question - Why should I b*st my ass preparing for JEE?

The best response I can think for this is a wonderful quote from Mr Warren Buffett - You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.

Cometh the tough times, we will realize that most of our engineering graduates know pish tosh about anything. Now would be a good time to give a silent thanks to the Infies and Wipros of the world for bailing the city out at just the right time.

The second and more distressing factor driving this is the Tamilnadu stateboard education system. Most of our college students know very little because we have taught them only that much. Simply put, the stateboard education system teaches close to nothing to students.

Tamilnadu students are classic examples of the frog in the well syndrome. There are apparently 600 guys in the state who get 200 each in Maths, Physics and Chemistry in their standard XII exam. The amount of cocaine needed to believe that this is a good statistic runs in kilograms. But somehow, this is touted as a good showing every year. I really want some of what the government officials are having.

Importantly, this idea has been sold to the people so magnificently that there is a sense of pride in choosing our own path, a feeling that justice has been done, etc. "Entrance exams rig the game in favour of city people and rich people, this marks-only scheme is a more level playing field" - this is what most people in the city are made to believe.

Tamilnadu has been drunk on watered-down material, inflated grades, and great jobs for close to 15 years now. When the state will pay the price, I do not know. That there is a price to be paid, I am sure of.

Some early signs are there. Large number of small companies based out of Chennai go to Bangalore to recruit (some go to Madurai, Truchy as well. In order to get good attitude. Chennai cannot offer that either).

Last year, IIM Kozhikode, in a fantastic gesture told Tamilnadu students that they could take their stateboard marksheets and shove it somewhere. In an overall scoring system where class X and XII marks play a role in securing admissions. Marks obtained in Tamilnadu stateboard exams have been given 50% weightage. In other words, if you scored 90% in CBSE board exams, you would 18 out of 20 for that section. If you scored 100% in Tamilnadu stateboard exams you would get 10 out of 20 in that section. Awesome. This is the clearest indicator of what the rest of the country thinks of our beloved board. I dont think any state government officials would even know about this. If they did, we would have heard of court case against it. It has a late 80s soviet Union spiel about it. (We live in our cocoon, we are the best. Repeat after me)

The qualification one holds is a signal. In a recruitment market with asymmetric information, the degree you hold tells the potential recruiter whether you are good, bad or rotten. The reputation of the college and the difficulty level of the course you have done determine what you are signaling to your recruiter.

The signals sent could be very simple

1. A person with a high score is likely to be good (whatever way good is defined us. let us keep this simple).
2. A person with a low score is unlikely to be good

The signal Tamilnadu education board has created is awesome. After years of effort they have developed this one-way signal, probably unique in the world

If a student scores high marks in Tamilnadu board, this means nothing.
If a student scores low marks in Tamilnadu board, this means he must be phenomenally dumb or should be so lazy that he just does not care. Or both.

So, with the TN board signal, you can either conclude that you know nothing about the candidate or that he is an idiot.

Now, we are heading towards Samcheer kalvi. God save the state.


Thursday, December 8, 2011

The class and caste system in the IITs

The IITs have their own class and caste system. The class system is one of grades, the point that has been well-illustrated by the book "Five-point someone". Everyone in campus is a something-pointer, and this classification gets established right at the end of semester II and chases one all the way to semester VIII (and beyond, sadly).

There are juntas who slide down from a 9-pointer to an 8-something, there are those who that crash and burn all the way to the dreaded 6-somethings. Less frequently, we would hear about the upwardly mobile as well; the rare "fighters" who travel in the opposite direction. This group undergoes the same acceptance problems as any aspiring class but gains recognition once 2 semesters go by.

In every branch there are 9-pointers to 6-pointers and beyond. In many ways, local social standing and preconceptions are built pretty much around this number. One of the main planks of Alpha-male-dom in campus is the number attached after (or before) your name. The Chetan Bagat novel actually captures this very well.

The caste system in IITs is one based on branch or department. Depending on the craze and frenzy of the times, the departments are placed in some order. Computer Science is usually on top, followed by electrical, mech, chem and then the rest(see how patronizing that was. Caste usually operates like that).

People earn(!) branch changes at the end of semester II if they are in the top x% of the overall batch or some such norm; but barring this naturalization, there is no way of changing your caste (branch). People can choose to move to "lower" branches without any CGPA cut-off at the end of semester II, although political correctness usually demands that this not be called a "branch slide".

Even the most broad-minded and politically correct juntas usually accept the caste/class norms and this is what keeps these norms from disappearing. For any class/caste system to really gain acceptance, the so-called "lower" class/caste should subconsciously accept the hierarchy. The group dynamics in IITs ensure that this happens smoothly.

So, how does one compare an elec 7-pointer with a 9-pointer from a "lower" branch? Thats a tricky one. Both will argue that they are superior to the other. But in many cases, if you are sufficiently lower in caste, the class ceases to count. To give an example, a mech 9-pointer can have a better standing than an elec 7-pointer, but there is a good chance that the meta 9-pointer cannot compete.

I had this memorable conversation with my classmate who was (is) an electrical engineer. And who (like yours truly) was designated low class by semester III (we were both 7 pointers). There was this 4th year student from our hostel who was in the top few in his branch and felt he had done enough academically to impart gyaan to students two years his junior. The only problem was that he was a topper in metallurgical engineering. And meta is a low-caste branch, if you know what I mean.

My friend patiently listened to said pompous git for about 3 minutes, waited for the guy to leave and then said "Meta-****** have started speaking to me about academics. ****** . ***^&%^*.. I would effing be an elec 5-pointer than be the branch record holder in that ***'s branch. Somebody should tell that ***** that he can shove his advice up his ********. If he can clear the electronics paper in my effing branch without getting his *** whipped, I will listen to the **** for more than effing 3 minutes. *****.

Caste overrides class here.

We have parallels of the caste/class demarcation in many different fields. Academic background/Job is one such. Essentially, one aspect that cannot be easily changed along with one that can be improved upon together combining to count for social standing is a caste/class system

Grade/branch in IITs
Academic background/ Job performance
Beauty quotient of wife/ wealth
Inherited wealth/ income generated

This is probably the reason why the caste system is more odious than the class one. Because you can still alter your class - through smarts, luck or perseverance. But if you are a meta dude, there is no way in hell you can give gyaan to Computer Science graduates and hope to be listened to. And that somehow grates more.

P.S: On a side note, that meta dude was a muppet. Pompous non-achiever if ever there was one. :)

Monday, October 17, 2011

Why I am not a fan of Chartered Accountants

Apparently, the answer to the above question is not obvious. Makes me feel that we live in a world filled with chartered accountants. Top 6 reasons below

1. Rule of 44A: This is the rule that allows CA's to arbitrarily club 2 numbers and an alphabet and hide behind that - no questions asked.

2. Propensity to act like the military: CA's either tell you that something cannot be done, or that they will take care of the issue (they often flipflop between the two, which can be mildly irritating). Never, will they tell you how something is taken care of or why something needs taking care of. The left hand shall never know what the right hand does.

3. Popular belief that CA's are good at maths: CAs know how to add/manipulate numbers that can be put on a spreadsheet. They generally know diddly-squat about maths. Most CAs wont know that the probability of them understanding anything has to be lesser than or equal to one, no matter how great they are. It is an unfortunate reality of our country that someone who can add/subtract using excel sheets is considered "strong in numbers".

4. Legal system that gives them a monopoly: Put simply, the signature of a CA carries value. So, throw a simple demand-supply equation in and you know what I am getting at.

5. An education system that de-selects intelligence: I find it very hard to believe that someone with a high level of intelligence will tolerate the slow decay of brain cells that is CA preparation. So, CAs strike that exact beautiful balance. One needs to show resilience, diligence and some degree of smarts to get there. But you are essentially dealing with a peer group that is not frightfully smart because of the dumbing-down required to get there. An awesome cocktail to facilitate the indoctrination that follows. A very narrow IQ band of 90-95 or thereabouts would fit the bill, I think.

6. An extremely inflated sense of self-worth: Now, this is what gets me the most. So, there goes the rant-alert. The game is rigged to select irritants with average IQ and give them monopoly powers. At best, this is a positive result for society because it prevents these characters from interrupting other productive activities. If all of us see it this way, we could all treat CA-dom as a necessary evil and get on with life. However, this is where indoctrination plays spoil-sport. CAs are bred to believe that they are phenomenal because a) it is so difficult to become one and b) they are the number-keepers of all of society.

I once attended this party where there were 4 couples. All 4 couples had young kids and the first two couples I interacted with the mothers had taken a break from work to handle the kid(s). When I ran into couple no 3, I asked the wife if she was working, very innocently (with not even a tinge of chauvinism, I must add). She was more than mildly irritated and replied "I am a CA" (with a nasal twang that so called high-brow South Indians are wont to use). Somehow this was meant to convey to me that she not working would be such a loss to society that it could not even be contemplated. This made me recall this timeless scene from one of my favourite movies - with the immortal line, "Athulla enna peruma, get out"



Next time some CA has that "I am a CA, please give me the respect it deserves" look, think about the line - "Athulla enna peruma, get out" (For good measure imagine Thengai Srinivasan and Rajnikant as well). I have noticed that even though it does little to change CA's perception of oneself even a smidgeon, it makes your conversation with said CA slightly less miserable. And if you are unfortunate enough to be caught in a conversation with a CA, this is the best you can hope for.

A sense of humour that can compete with that of a hockey stick, an ability to spout global inanities at the first request for detail and vice versa, propensity to underestimate other professions, etc can be added to the list of CA characteristics that can be less endearing. But no point flogging a dead horse and all that :)

I need to add a disclaimer here, because the CAs have a chip on the shoulder and are liable to list down a series of successful CAs in a bid to reclaim the holy-land that is CA-dom. Not all CAs are dumb. There is bound to be a sizeable minority of CAs who are reasonably intelligent and tolerable. This is called law of averages. The likelihood of finding a CA who is smart and tolerable is about as high as finding someone else with any other qualification, be it B.Com or BE or BA. The other graduates accept this as reality, CAs will perceive this as an insult. And that is the most painful factor about them.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Greece crisis in Laymanomics

Had a discussion for long-ish stretch of time at home last evening on Greece and why this crisis is upon Europe (and by, extension the rest of the world). Just thought I would put it on the blog as well.

It all began with the start of the Euro project. When the single currency was launched, all countries could borrow in Euro terms, though the rate each country borrows at depends on that country's financial state. However, when the Euro was launched, the rates of almost all countries were within a small band. This really helped Greece, Portugal etc as they could now borrow at very low rates. This benefit was added on as one of the Euro project's success stories.

For a parallel, think of a group such as Tata. TCS can borrow whatever money it needs at less than 6% interest rate (TCS has cash reserves running into 100's of millions), whereas if Tatas started a new venture called Tata oil financing, they would be able to borrow only at rates of 10% or so. If the banks got a 'Tata' guarantee, then the loans to TCS and Tata Oil financing would be at closer levels. The Euro project gave all countries a Euro guarantee (Only it did not, we will see that)

Now, we all know what debt at low interest rates can do to people, imagine what it can do to countries. For second house and big car, read increased pensions and pet going-nowhere projects. Government spending increased and fiscal health deteriorated. Come 2008-crisis and everything froze for a little while. Anything freezes, the riskier assets are the first to clog up.

For our India parallel, imagine a bank run on ICICI. ICICI will do whatever to calm the markets, but one of the first things it will do internally is to say that stop lending to companies like Tata Oil.

Now, no country can run without debt-financing and even temporary freeze-ups can hurt perfectly well-run businesses and countries. So, the system did whatever it could to unclog stuff. Big blanket guarantees were promised. Huge recapitalization was done

In India RBI comes out and says depositors are protected, no matter what.

But suspicion that some countries are not that well-managed never went away and everyone started looking closer and closer at risk premia. Spreads started expanding. No longer would German debt and Greece debt be at the same cost. It was a stupid idea anyway and now with things looking sticky, markets had to revisit this.

ICICI and co told Tata group that group guarantees are well and fine, but will TCS shareholders cough up $500m if Tata Oil collapsed? Because they wont, we want to get paid 10% interest rates anyway. For good measure, we want to add a penalty clause that will increase the interest rates to 12% in case of missed/delayed payments.

When interest rates go up and EMI creeps up, families struggle to pay mortgages. Countries are no different. As it is the recession had hurt revenues, now with interest costs increasing finances started looking ugly.

Tata Oil had one rig failure and with interest rate reaching 12% things became tricky to handle. Interest payments went high and margins got squeezed

Greece got a soft loan from rest of Europe/ECB (read Germany). This was at a low interest rate, made plainly to help tide things along. This was for a short-term only, with the idea that once things recovered, Greece would be able to hold its own. In return, the Euro countries forced down a plan to improve Greece's fiscal state. Severe austerity measures were imposed. An already contracting economy's troubles were exacerbated.

ICICI realized that deliberately squeezing Tata Oil was going to help nobody, struck a deal with Tata Group, relaxed interest rate to 7% for 2 years, with an added guarantee from Tata Group (TCS shareholders were not spoken to even now). ICICI clamped down on top management pay, had an ICICI guy installed on the board of Tata Oil and slashed marketing budget. A company struggling for revenues had its marketing budget slashed - one can imagine what happens

Greece's recovery plan was based on three assumptions - 1) the austerity measures would be sufficient (some doubted this) 2) the austerity measures would be implemented well and accepted well (many doubted this) and 3) global economy would recover well (nobody really believed this)

ICICI got a promise from Tata group and assumed that Tata Oil would retain its best employees. Good employees have a knack of running away from a sinking ship and sharp clients are good enough to sense fleeing employees.

We are where we are. None of the three assumptions have held good. The world now wants blanket guarantees from Germany, a huge bazooka to bail out Greece and Greece to become good citizens and reform. Good luck with that. If this does not turn out well, the markets will go after Portugal and Ireland, we are told. If Germany wont bail out Greece, why should they bother with Portugal or Ireland.

Taking our parallel further, if TCS wont bailout Tata Oil, why should the bankers lend to Tata Real estate on group guarantee? Why indeed?

The most critical parallel here is the fact that as much as TCS is part of the Tata group, TCS is also listed. And the TCS shareholders have to have a say in any further guarantee-ing. Being part of the group was all well and good when this started. But 90% of TCS revenues come from outside, and everyone can sense that the group tag is a liability. Importantly, TCS shareholders can ask Tata group to take a hike.

Replace Tata group with Euro, TCS with German citizens and Tata Oil with Greece and our parallel becomes complete.

I am firmly with TCS shareholders on this. The German citizens should ask Greece to take a hike. This bail-out-or-we-will-all-be-in-bigger-trouble trick worked for the banks in 2008, Germany should not fall for it again.